Grain Highlights 28.08.2022

According to ProZerno’s forecast, the grain production in Russia will reach 145 million tons in 2022, domestic consumption is estimated at 83 million tons, and the export potential is expected within 55-56 million tons, including 44 million tons of wheat.

– According to ProZerno’s forecast, the grain production in Russia will reach 145 million tons in 2022, domestic consumption is estimated at 83 million tons, and the export potential is expected within 55-56 million tons, including 44 million tons of wheat. The state fund can buy 2-3 million tons of wheat, i.e. prices will be low.

– From 31.08.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will drop to 4,053.8 rubles/ton (4,794.7 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 2,729.3 rubles/ton (3,092.1) and the export tax on corn will be 3,569.9 rubles/ton (3,862.4). In September, the export tax on Russian sunseed oil will be 8,621.3 rubles/ton (15,987 in August). The export tax on sunseed meal will be 1,578.5 rubles/ton (2,265).

– As of 25.08.2022, 23,500 hectares of sunseed were harvested in Ukraine (1% of the area), 18,800 tons of sunseed were harvested at an average yield of 0.8 tons/hectare. Rapeseed was harvested on 1.085 million hectares (99%), 3.1 million tons of rapeseed were harvested with an average yield of 2.84 tons/hectare. Wheat was harvested on 4.6 million hectares (98%), 18.8 million tons of wheat were harvested with an average yield of 4.08 tons/hectare. Barley was harvested on 1.6 million hectares (99%), 5.5 million tons of barley were harvested at an average yield of 3.46 tons /hectare.

– From the beginning of the season to 26.08.2022, 3,408 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (7,006 a year earlier), including 1,707 million tons in August (3,969), 937,000 tons of wheat (3,413 in 2021/22), 274,000 tons of barley and 2.18 million tons of corn (1,182).

– According to the forecast of the European Commission, the corn production in the EU will be 59.3 million tons in 2022/23 (-6.5 compared to the previous estimate and -13.4 compared to 2021/22). Consumption will reach 82.3 million tons (82.3 and +0.3), corn imports will be 20 million tons (+3.5 and +3.7), ending corn stocks are expected at 13.1 million tons (-2.5 and 20.1). Barley production will reach 50.4 million tons (-1.1 and 52) and closing barley stocks are projected at 3.5 million tons (-1.4 and -1). The soft wheat production will be 126 million tons (+2.1 and 130.1) and stocks will be 15.7 million tons (+2 and 16.6).

– According to Deral data, the harvesting campaign of wheat has started in the Brazilian state of Parana. As of 22.08.222, 80% of crops were in good and excellent condition, 17% in satisfactory condition and 3% in poor condition.

– According to an assessment of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange as of 08/25/2022, 79.9% of wheat crops in Argentina are in good and excellent condition. New crop areas are 6.1 million hectares (6.7 in 2021/22).

– The Government of India will limit the export of rice. The country holds 40% of the world’s rice exports. A ban on the export of wheat flour has already been introduced. The reduction is due to drought and poor wheat and rice productions.

– According to data from Oil World, during the period of limited palm oil exports from Indonesia, world exports were 10.18 million tons (12.54 a year earlier). Top importers were EU with 1.5 million tons (2), India with 1.7 million tons (2), China with 0.89 million tons (1.55), Pakistan with 475,000 tons (701,000), Iran with 65,000 tons (195,000), Nigeria with 149,000 tons (240,000). Over the period of January – July, the import of palm oil in the world reached 24.08 million tons (28.4).

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