Grain Highlights 04.10.2022

The European Commission again reduced its forecast for the 2022/23 corn production in the EU by 3.8 million tons compared to the previous estimate to 55.5 million tons (72.7 in 2021/22)..

– According to a preliminary estimate by Rusagrotrans, 3.9-4 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia in September (4-4.2 in the previous forecast). In October, exports are expected to reach 4.4-4.5 million tons.

– In September, 1.43 million tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, including 1.36 million tons of wheat and 74,400 tons of barley. The biggest customers for wheat were Egypt with 362,100 tons, Iran with 255,300 tons, Saudi Arabia with 137,500 tons, Sudan with 134,500 tons. The biggest customers for barley were Iran and Libya.

– In October, export taxes on Russian sunseed oil and sunseed meal will be zero. In September, the export tax on sunseed oil was 8,621.3 rubles/ton and the export tax on sunseed meal was 1,578.5 rubles/ton.

– The European Commission again reduced its forecast for the 2022/23 corn production in the EU by 3.8 million tons compared to the previous estimate to 55.5 million tons (72.7 in 2021/22). Domestic consumption of corn decreased by 4.9 million tons to 77.4 million tons (-4.6), and the estimate for corn imports was increased by 1 million tons to 21 million tons (+4.7). Ending corn stocks are projected to reach 15.6 million tons (-4.4 compared to 2021/22). The soft wheat production is expected at 127 million tons (+1.1 and -3.1), soft wheat consumption is expected at 95.6 million tons (+2.7 and 95.6), and ending wheat stocks are estimated at 14.5 million tons (-1.2 and -2.1). The estimate for wheat exports remained unchanged at 36 million tons (29.3). Barley production will reach 51.5 million tons (+1 and 52), domestic barley consumption is projected at 42.5 million tons (unchanged), barley exports are expected at 10 million tons (10.5) and ending barley stocks are predicted at 4.7 million tons (4.5).

– On Friday, Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 10,500 contracts of wheat and 4,500 contracts of corn and net sellers of 15,000 contracts of soybeans.

– According to an estimate by Oil World, Argentine farmers sold 15 million tons of soybeans in September, which is much higher than expected. Of this amount, China purchased 3.5-3.6 million tons, and according to some estimates, 4 million tons.

– The authorities in China have warned the companies producing corn starch in the country to stop exporting. The aim is to stabilize the price of corn in China. In August, corn exports decreased to 900 tons, in July they were 40,000 tons, and in August 2021 corn exports reached 23,240 tons.

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