Grain Highlights 09.10.2022

Over the period of January-August, oilseed products for 3.652 billion USD were exported from Ukraine, which is 11% less than the previous year.

– During the week starting on 12.10.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 1,926.8 rubles/ton (2,119 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 1,632 rubles/ton (1,849.8) and the export tax on corn will be 3,114.1 rubles/ton (3,295.6).

– 16.5 million hectares will be sown with winter wheat in Russia (-0.5 compared to 2021), which is a five-year minimum.

– Over the period of January-August, oilseed products for 3.652 billion USD were exported from Ukraine, which is 11% less than the previous year. Exports of sunseed oil were for 3.361 billion USD (-422 million USD). The largest customers were Poland with a share of 14.5%, India with 11.7%, Turkey with 9.8%, Netherlands with 8.1%, Italy with 5.4%, Bulgaria with 4.9%, Spain with 4.7% and Romania with a share of 4.5%. The export of oil crops amounted to 1.712 billion USD, including 1.6 million tons of sunseed  for 823 million USD, 0.9 million tons of rapeseed for 415 million USD and 0.8 million tons of soybeans for 413 million USD. Romania had a share of purchases of 19.3%, Bulgaria had 18%, Turkey had 16.9%, Poland had 12.2%, Hungary had 7.9%, Germany had 5.9%, Moldova had 3.7% and the Netherlands had a share of 3.1%.

– After the first week of October, 96,000 hectares of corn were harvested in Ukraine (2.3% of the area), 400,000 tons of corn were harvested at an average yield of 4.17 tons/hectare. 1.3 million hectares (28%) were harvested with sunseed, and 2.6 million tons of sunseed were harvested at an average yield of 2 tons/hectare.

– According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 03.10.2022 in France, 67% of the corn areas have been harvested (+16% for the week and 6% a year earlier).

– On Thursday, Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of corn, 5,000 contracts of soybeans and 7,000 contracts of wheat.

– According to ANEC’s forecast, 4.2 – 5.5 million tons of corn will be exported from Brazil in October. In August 2021, the export was 1.9 million tons, and in September 2022 – 6.7 million tons. The export of soybeans in October will reach 3.1 million tons (2.9 and 3.7), and soymeal exports are projected at 1.8 million tons (1.3 and 1.7).

– According to ARMS data, over the August-September period, deliveries of new wheat crop in India increased to the highest level for the last 12 years – 2.27 million tons (1.44 million tons a year earlier). Over the period of April – August, deliveries were at the highest level for the last three years – 20.9 million tons (17.51). Domestic wheat prices have now stabilized.

– In 2023, the average price of palm oil in Malaysia will decrease to 4,300 ringgit/ton (928.93 USD/ton), which will be below the 2022 level of 5,000 ringgit/ton and 2,685 ringgit/ton in the last 10 years. The world supply of oils remains limited.

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