Grain Highlights 04.11.2022

Russia has resumed its participation in the grain deal. Written guarantees have been received from Ukraine that the corridor will not be used to carry out hostilities against Russia.

– Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast for the 2022/23 grain production in Russia from 152.5 million tons to 154 million tons. The wheat production is estimated at 101.5 million tons (100.1), corn production is projected at 16 million tons and barley production will reach 23.3 million tons. The production of oil crops will reach 27.2 million tons (26.6), including sunseed production of 16.7 million tons (17).

– Since the beginning of the season, 17,995 million tons of grain have been exported from Russia (18,268 a year earlier). Wheat exports totalled 15,036 million tons (15,596).

– The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia expects a 2022/23 oilseed production in the country of 25.5 million tons.

– Since the beginning of the current season, sunseed imports into the EU have reached 1 million tons (126,000 a year earlier). The largest supplier is Ukraine is 818,900 tons. Deliveries of sunseed meal were 774,400 tons (+51%, Ukraine with a share of 46%) and sunseed oil imports were 559,500 tons (+1%, Ukraine with a share of 88%).

– The 2022/23 US corn stocks/use ratio will be the lowest since 2012/13. This state of the market causes concern among all participants. At the same time, the low level of the Mississippi hampers and limits the export of corn and will affect the expected increase in prices.

– According to USDA data, as of 10/30/2022, 87% of the planned areas were sown with winter wheat in the United States (+8% for the week). Corn has been harvested on 76% of the areas (+15%), and soybeans have been harvested on 88% of areas (+8%).

– StoneX Group has raised its forecast for soybean production in Brazil for the 2022/23 production by 0.6 million tons to 154.4 million tons. Exports will be 96 million tons (-4 and 78.3 in the previous season). The corn production is expected to reach 129.9 million tons (+3.6 and +17.1).

– The Government of Argentina will allow exporters to change the terms of wheat deliveries without penalties under already concluded contracts. Some forecasts for the production point to a level of 13.7 million tons, which would be the lowest result for the past seven years. Contracts have already been concluded for the export of 8.9 million tons of wheat, and domestic consumption in 2021/22 was 7.6 million tons, i.e. in total they are above the new crop. About 2 million tons of wheat from the 2021/22 crop are unsold.

– According to Soybean&Corn Advisor forecast, the 2022/23 soybean production in Paraguay is projected to reach 10 million tons (4.2 in 2021/22).

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