Grain Highlights 23.01.2023

According to a study by Farm Futures, wheat areas in the United States will be 19.8 million hectares in 2023 (+1.3 compared to 2022), including winter wheat areas of 14.1 million hectares (+0.9) and spring wheat areas of 5.6 million hectares.

– Rusagrotrans raised their forecast for the export of wheat from Russia in January from 3.6 million tons to 3.8-4 million tons. The forecast for exports throughout 2022/23 has also been increased to 46 million tons. According to SovEcon’s forecast, wheat exports from Russia will reach 3.7 million tons in January (4.3 in December). For the whole of 2022/23, the export will reach 44.1 million tons. The Russian Grain Union predicts grain exports from Russia in the current season in the amount of 62-63 million tons, including wheat exports of 52 million tons.

– In the week starting from 25.01.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 4,283.2 rubles/ton (4,719.4 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,083.7 rubles/ton (3,977.6) and the export tax on corn will be 886.5 rubles/ton (1,174.6).

– As of 19.01.2023, 87% of the corn areas were harvested in Ukraine, and 24.4 million tons of corn have been harvested (23.5 weeks earlier).

– From the beginning of the season to 20.01.2023, the export of grain from Ukraine reached 25,136 million tons (36,084 a year earlier), including 2.39 million tons in January (3.612). The export of wheat was 9,082 million tons (16,574), barley exports were 9,082 million tons (16,574) and corn exports reached 14,219 million tons (13,714).

– According to a study by Farm Futures, wheat areas in the United States will be 19.8 million hectares in 2023 (+1.3 compared to 2022), including winter wheat areas of 14.1 million hectares (+0.9) and spring wheat areas of 5.6 million hectares. Soybean areas will be 36 million hectares (+0.6), and corn areas are projected at 36.6 million hectares (+0.8).

– In February, Brazil will send two ships with a total of 71 thousand tons of soybeans to Argentina.

– As of 16.01.2023, in the Brazilian state of Parana, 80% of soybean crops are in good and excellent condition (80 a week earlier), 15% are in satisfactory condition (16) and 5% are in poor condition (4) according to data from Safras&Mercado. 60% of the crops are in the pouring stage. The production is expected to reach 21.47 million tons (+78% compared to 2021/22) with an average yield of 3.75 tons/hectare (2.14).

– The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 corn production in Argentina to 44.5 million tons (50 in the September forecast). As of 18.01.2023, the sowing campaign of corn was carried out on 88.6% of the areas.

– According to CNGOIC’s estimate, 2.08 million tons of soybeans were processed in China during the week ending January 17, 2023, which is 5% more than the previous week. Soybean stocks in the country were 4.3 million tons (-4% compared to the previous week, +3% compared to a month earlier and +10% compared to the previous year), soymeal stocks were 480,000 tons (-19%, +30%, -25%), and soyoil stocks were 710,000 tons (no change, +9% and -9%).

– According to data from China’s statistical office, the import of American soybeans into the country was 29 million tons in 2022 (-10% compared to 2021), and the share of supplies from the United States dropped to 32%. Deliveries from Brazil were 54.4 million tons (-6% and 60%), imports from Uruguay were 1.79 million tons (866,000) and imports from Argentina reached 3.65 million tons (no change). In 2022, soybean supplies in China will reach 91.08 million tons (-5.6%).

– On 19.01.2023, the state company of Egypt GASC bought 50,000 tons of Romanian corn at a price of 339 USD/ton C&F.

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